Know before you risk.

Challenge Calculator

How many losses in a row reach your limit? Work through a simple example before testing your real rules.

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Official starting values, not a full rules check

Only first-phase percentages are prefilled. Equity, day resets, minimum days, news and EA rules are not calculated. Check your exact variant on the linked rules page.

Account size (account currency)Daily loss limit (%)Total loss limit (%)Profit target (%)Risk per trade (% of initial balance)Assumed win rate (%)Reward / risk ratio

Your hypothetical example

Losses to reach daily limit: 5
Losses to reach total limit: 10
Trades to target at assumed expectancy: 20
Expected return per trade before costs (R): 0.5

In 100 trades	Mean runs	At least one run
5 losses in a row	1.516	81.011%
10 losses in a row	0.045	4.414%

Assumptions that limit this result

100 independent trades, constant win rate and fixed risk of initial balance. Each losing run is counted once, not as overlapping windows. The daily threshold assumes the whole run occurs on one day. “Reached” means greater than or equal; a firm may define a breach only below its equity floor.

Trades to target is target divided by positive expected gain, rounded up. It is not a predicted waiting time: loss barriers, path and dependence are not modeled. No costs, slippage, swaps, trailing limits or open positions. This does not prove passing.

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Historical simulation, not a forecast.

Trading risk disclosure

Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading, and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical performance disclosure

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. Hypothetical results are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight, do not involve financial risk, and cannot completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. Market conditions, the ability to withstand losses, and adherence to a trading program can all materially affect actual results.

NinjaTrader trademark disclosure

NinjaTrader® is a registered trademark of NinjaTrader Group, LLC. No NinjaTrader company has any affiliation with the owner, developer, or provider of the products or services described herein, or any interest, ownership or otherwise, in any such product or service, or endorses, recommends or approves any such product or service.