Historical test result
Buy the strongest coin? -3.7 % a year.
Relative crypto momentum (30 days, picked again each week) on BTC, ETH and LTC lost 3.69 % a year with a 36 % drawdown. On your 100,000 dollar challenge account that pace would cost you about 3,700 dollars in a year, which eats a large part of your loss limit.
Why this idea feels right
You see one coin run hard for a month. You think you missed it. You want to jump on what already works. Many traders live by one rule. Buy the strongest coin of the last 30 days. It feels safe because strength looks like proof. You tell yourself winners keep winning. You fear buying what lags. You don't want to look wrong.
What I tested
I ran a simple test on old prices. A backtest shows how rules would have done on old prices. I used three large coins. I picked the one that rose most in the prior month. I picked again on the same weekday. The test runs from 2019 to 2025. I didn't count challenge fees. I only wanted to see what the rule did.
What the numbers say
A drawdown is the fall from a high point to a low point. For the risk taken the score was minus 0.22. Only two years ended with a gain. The rule made about 101 trades a year. That is a lot of action for little reward. You pay spread and fees on each turn. You sit through long slides with no pay. You wait a long time for a good year.
What it means for your challenge
You don't start with room to waste. Your loss limit ends your run if you cross it. That yearly cost would use a big slice of that room. You would need a strong start just to stay alive. You can't wish that cost away. You must see it before you pay the fee. A rule that bleeds slowly still fails you. You must protect that room from the first day.
How you check your own report
This takes five minutes. Pull your yearly results. Look for years that closed down. Look for years that closed up. Open your own backtest report and check if losing years outnumber winning years before you pay the fee. If losers lead, pause and think. If you can't find yearly results, stop and ask for them.
What I do with this rule
I like simple rules that I can explain. I need to see gains in most years first. I wouldn't pay a challenge fee for this idea because my test lost money in most years. I keep my fee until I see a rule that holds up. You should do the same with your cash.
Why strength can fade fast
You buy after a coin already ran. You pay a high price. Late buyers often face a sharp drop. The prior winner can turn into the next loser. You then switch to a new winner at a high price. You repeat the same pain. You chase heat while your account cools. That's why past strength can hurt you. You feel smart when you buy strength. You feel stuck when it drops.
What to ask before you pay
You need clear facts before you risk cash. Ask how many years made money. Ask how deep the worst slide ran. Ask how often the rule trades. If no one can show you, walk away. If the proof looks thin, keep your fee. You deserve proof that you can read in a short time.
Keep your check simple
You don't need fancy math. You need years that made money and slides you can live with. You need a rule you can explain to a friend. If you can't explain it, don't buy it.
These are historical test results, not a live account.
Check your own rules with the free Prop Rule Guard here: https://stratcorealpha.com/rule-guard?ref=website