Historical test result
Option expiry week: -4.8 % a year since 2021.
My test of expiry week lost money. On a 100,000 dollar challenge account that pace would cost you about 4,800 dollars in a year, which alone can end your challenge at its loss limit.
What you may have heard
You may have heard that prices climb when monthly options end. The story says buyers push the price up into the close. It sounds neat and it fits a fee you want to pay. Stocks rise in option expiration week.
That claim shows up a lot and you deserve a clear check before you trust it. So I ran a plain historical test on past prices. A historical test replays past prices to see what a simple calendar rule would have done.
What my test showed
Buying the S&P 500 in the week of the monthly option expiry lost 0.99 % a year, and -4.83 % a year after 2020. That index tracks large US firms as one price you can trade. It ran from 2017 to 2023. The test covered 84 out of 84 months.
The reward for the risk was -0.13. At worst you sat about 25 % below the last peak. You paid to hold through dips and you got no lift for it. The early part already sagged and the later part sagged more.
That split matters for you because you trade now, not in the past. A rule that fades when you need it most is a poor base for a fee. You want a plan that holds up late, and this one did the opposite. Short notes help you read fast before you pay.
What this means for your challenge
Think of your challenge as a paid test with a firm stop line. A challenge is a paid test where you must stay inside loss limits to get funded. A loss limit is the line that ends your test if your account value drops too far.
You start clean and each losing spell pulls you toward that line. A steady bleed hurts more than one sharp scare because it leaves you less room to act. You feel forced to trade back and you take worse trades late in the test.
That is why you check a calendar claim before you pay the fee. You want to know if the week pays for the risk you must sit through. In my test it did not, and the later stretch looked weaker still.
You can use that lesson to skip a weak week and save your nerve for stronger ground. You also save cash when you skip a fee for a weak claim. A fee lost on hope teaches less than a free check done with care.
Take your time, read your own numbers first, and let the market wait. Patience here leaves your account ready for a better shot later. You may thank yourself later for the pause.
A funded path needs small trades and clear stops, which are preset exit points, not a lucky calendar. If the week cannot carry its own weight, you let it pass and guard your line.
How you check this on your own report
You can do this in five minutes with your own report. Open your own report and compare what you made in expiry week with what you made in the other weeks.
Mark each expiry week on your calendar and add the results apart from the rest. Look at the account value line, not just closed trades, so you see the dips inside the week. If expiry week lags the rest in your data, you have your answer for your plan. Keep the note with your challenge rules so you recall it when the month ends.
What I do
I would never buy this week for a challenge because my test lost money on it. I wait for moves I can read and I skip dates that ask me to hope. You deserve the same calm, so test a claim first and pay only for rules you trust.
These are historical test results, not a live account.
Try my free Prop Rule Guard at https://stratcorealpha.com/rule-guard?ref=website to keep your challenge inside its loss limit.